The food crisis in Europe and Asia

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted approximately 50% of global fertilizer exports. Market participants warn that disrupted nutrient flows could interfere with the sowing campaign and contribute to food-security stress in Europe and Asia.

Nitrogen additive prices have already increased by 30%. Because nitrogen products are time-sensitive for planting calendars, even short interruptions in vessel traffic can translate into delayed field application and lower expected yields.

Why it matters

Fertilizer is not a discretionary industrial input for grain and oilseed producers. When export routes through the Persian Gulf are blocked or delayed, importers face both higher CIF costs and uncertain arrival windows.

A 30% move in nitrogen additive prices changes working-capital needs for distributors and farms. Buyers who rely on just-in-time inventory have limited buffers if Gulf loadings slip by several weeks.

Market context

Roughly half of global fertilizer exports affected by the Hormuz closure underscores how concentrated certain nutrient trade lanes remain. Europe and Asia are particularly exposed where seasonal demand coincides with disrupted Gulf sailings.

Procurement teams should reassess origin diversification, earlier nomination of parcels and contingency freight options. Delivered cost calculations must include war-risk, routing and demurrage assumptions, not only the product FOB level.

Source: Market summary based on Hormuz fertilizer-export disruption reporting, 17 March 2026.