The protracted crisis in the Strait of Hormuz may provoke an "agri-food catastrophe"
A protracted crisis in the Strait of Hormuz threatens fertilizer and energy exports at the same time. The United Nations has warned that disrupted shipments of fertilizers and energy resources will lead to higher food prices and lower agricultural yields.
A sharp rise in oil and gas prices can lift the cost of living and hit the most vulnerable populations first. Energy costs also feed directly into ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production, amplifying farm-gate price pressure beyond the freight effect alone.
Why it matters
Food systems depend on timely nutrient supply and affordable energy. When both channels are stressed through the same chokepoint, planting economics deteriorate in import-dependent regions.
Higher energy prices raise production costs for nitrogen fertilizers even where plants remain online. Separately, delayed fertilizer arrivals compress application windows and can permanently reduce seasonal yield potential.
Market context
The UN called on all countries to carefully consider mandatory biofuel requirements and, above all, to avoid export restrictions on energy and fertilizers. Export bans in producing countries would compound the Hormuz logistics shock with administrative scarcity.
For commercial buyers, the practical response remains earlier coverage, diversified origins and realistic delivered-price modelling that includes energy-linked production costs, war-risk freight and possible schedule slippage through the Gulf.
Source: United Nations warning on Hormuz-related fertilizer and energy disruptions, 14 April 2026.
